Why Parlays Are Often A Better Bet Than Futures

As the NFL divisional playoffs approach, 32 contenders have been reduced to just eight. This weekend four more teams will bite the dust, and with them, countless Super Bowl futures tickets. Though you might be feeling smug if you're sitting on a Saints futures wager at +10,000, with New Orleans now listed at just +965 at Pinnacle Sportsbook, your nails are still in for a gnashing before you can pop the champagne.

Everyone loves a Cinderella story except a bookie, and though lightning does strike, more often than not, David won't actually get the better of Goliath. Plus it doesn't matter how close you get to the massive payout, if your team doesn't go all the way, your ticket is not worth the paper it's written on.

For those players holding a 100/1 Saints' ticket they will reap a handsome return on a minimal investment if New Orleans hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy. For the rest of us, there is some consolation in knowing that they probably would have received a higher payoff with a simple win parlay on Sean Payton's side.

When books deal futures markets, they try to maintain a semblance of balanced action and attempt to limit the liability on the worst case scenario. Due to a large number of bettors playing long shots, this can often lead to grossly depressed prices on underdogs. On the positive side though, this may lead to solid value on favorites.

At Pinnacle Sports Betting, futures markets are normally priced between 110% and 135% depending upon the size of the field. This compares favorably to futures markets of greater than 200% at most traditional sportsbooks. Even though this represents excellent value on the Pinnacle Sports betting futures markets, often even these margins won't properly reward long shot players.

Therefore, a good strategy when it gets to the playoffs is to estimate the moneyline quote of the team you like for each remaining game including the Super Bowl. After estimating the prices for the team to win through, you'll be able to calculate the estimated parlay price. Then simply compare the projected price for the parlay, to the odds on the futures market and you'll find whether the future or a win parlay would give you the best possible return on investment.

To calculate a parlay, first work out the decimal value for each moneyline quote. If the quote is positive '+', simply divide the moneyline by 100, and add 1. For example, if the moneyline is +200 the decimal quote is (200/100) + 1 = 2.00 + 1 = 3.00

If the moneyline quote is negative '-' simply add 100 to the moneyline quote and divide by the original moneyline quote. For example, if the moneyline is -135 the decimal quote is (235/135) = 1.7407

Then multiply all of the decimal quotes by each other and subtract 1 from the answer. As there are no set payoffs for tying a number of teams together in parlays for baseball, you can use this same simple formula to work out your baseball parlays as well when the boys of summer return.

By way of example, assuming the Saints win through and play the Bears in the NFC Championship Game and the Chargers in Super Bowl XLI, I would guesstimate that the line would be somewhere around Saints +4 (ML +185) versus Chicago and +7 (ML +265) against San Diego, if those games were played today. Therefore, a simple win parlay on the Saints in each game would be calculated as follows;

1.439 * 2.85 * 3.65 = 14.97 = c. 14/1 = +1397

By simply parlaying the moneyline quotes using a calculator, you'll find that a Saints' parlay will pay more than the available future odds of +965 on the team at the start of the playoffs. While it seems from the above example that futures bettors on New Orleans are shortchanged, this is typical of long shots in any futures market. It's also worth noting that the win parlay odds are often higher, despite the moneyline quote on the underdog in these do or die games usually being much lower than the ML quote for the corresponding point spread during the regular season.

When a bettor holds a 'live' futures ticket worth a large payout, the player may want to hedge out of their position during the later stages of the playoffs by placing a large wager on an opponent. While hedging out of a position is a way to lock in a profit, keep in mind that any hedge will result in laying additional vigorish, the bookmaker's cut for taking your bet. This can be mitigated somewhat by playing at a low vig sports book like Pinnacle Sports Book, which offers players up to 60% better value on NFL sides than traditional sports books. In general though, this is another potential benefit of playing a win parlay versus a future.

With a win parlay, bettors can simply pocket some winnings from previous games and lay less on the team in an upcoming game instead of spending extra juice to hedge out of their locked position. Of course the win parlay doesn't sound as glamorous as a high payout ticket, but at least the bettor will be getting the best available odds for their long shot.

So who are our players betting in the NFL Playoffs?

Indianapolis +4 -106 v. Baltimore

The Ravens originally opened at -3 (-115) and we saw early action, some which was sharp, for the home team. After moving the line, we received mixed buyback on Indy with two-way action after that. The sharps are clearly favoring Baltimore at this point.

Philadelphia +5 +103 v. New Orleans

We opened this game with the Saints listed as 4-point favorites and the early money on New Orleans drove the line upward. There was sporadic buyback on Philly until the line hit 5 and since then balanced action has been coming in. The sharper money is on the Saints at home and New Orleans has received nearly 1 1/2 times as many bets at this point.

Seattle +9.5 -109 v. Chicago

Chicago opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the sharps immediately jumped on the NFC's top seed. We didn't see any major Seattle action until the line reached 9.5 and then Seahawks money continued to bring the line back to where it currently sits at Bears -9.5 (+101). Although the sharp players favor the Bears, the public favors Seattle by a ratio of 5-to-2.

New England +5 -102 v. San Diego

The Chargers opened as 6-point favorites at home versus the three-time world champion Patriots. Early money was on the Patriots, but some sharp players played San Diego giving 6. Smaller New England bets continued to come in followed by some larger volume plays on the home Chargers. This was followed by balanced action once the line hit 5. The bet count at this point favors the Patriots at a 3-to-2 margin.

Measuring the Accuracy of Pinnacle's Sharp Plays

Since the first issue of the Pinnacle Pulse, we've focused a lot of attention on the methods and selections of 'sharp' players. Each week we highlight the markets where they are most active. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we consider a 'sharp player' to be a client that is consistently on the right side of a game, gets the best of the number and consequently wins over the long-term.

Therefore it is reasonable for bettors to ask how accurate these 'sharp plays' have been, but before going back and checking, bear in mind two bits of advice we have repeatedly stressed: 1) always play at the best price and 2) pass on a game if sharps have conflicting opinions at the same price. With these two rules in mind, you would have gone a whopping 47-31-2 following sharp plays since we began listing them last year.

Handicapping sports is a search for the truth. That truth is the chance of a given team winning on a given day. Professional players typically set their own line before looking at the market prices, and know what edge they expect at any given price. They view investing in a game as a simple commodity - they will buy either team if the price is right. In many instances, bettors will play both sides of the same game due to line moves or new information.

Many handicappers set their original line, and use an ROR (return on risk) hurdle to determine plays. For example, if a model predicts that Team A will beat Team B 75% of the time in a match-up, that player might look for a bet priced for Team A to win just 70% of the time, or Team B to win 20% of the time. Once that piece of truth is found - Team A's win percentage for that match-up - the sharp player bets it only if 'the price is right'. This might be by playing Team A at -233 on the moneyline, or making an 'equivalent' play identified with conversions, such as Team A -5.5. That same player would just as happily play Team B at +400 or +8 points.

In most games the market price will be close enough to the handicapper's fair price to suggest that the game is a 'pass'. Due to the commission a bettor must pay on each wager (traditionally 10% at most sports books), there's a dead zone where neither side can be played profitably. For example, a sportsbook might offer both sides of an NFL game at Pick'em -110. In that instance, no play could be profitably made unless a team was expected to win more than (110/210) = 52.4%. With traditional 20 cent lines, there is a fairly wide dead zone at most other bookmakers.

There are two obvious ways to reduce the impact of the dead zone. The simplest is to open an account with a reduced-juice sportsbook like Pinnacle Sports Betting. With Pinnacle's -104 style pricing on NFL sides, the dead zone is much smaller and a team expected to win just 51% could be profitable. Pinnacle Sports' reduced juice not only provides more favorable prices, with 8 cent lines on NFL sides, but gives bettors more possible plays as well.

The second way to reduce the dead zone further is to use multiple sportsbooks and shop lines. If you have an array of five plus sportsbooks, which includes a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports, you can frequently reduce the dead zone further - in some instances eliminating it entirely (e.g. if you can play either side at +100). When professional players count their profits in terms of 2-4% of their total betting volume, shopping to get the best number will frequently make the difference between a winning or losing season.

Modern Caveman recently contacted AskTheBook and asked:
Should a bettor really be taking advice from a bookie? In chess, I used to say 'never listen to your opponent.'

My advice would be, 'Trust, but verify'. In sports betting, like stock investing, you should never put money at risk on the strength of anything ANYONE says until you've researched the subject to the best of your abilities. This is especially true if your source has a vested interest.

The aim of The Pinnacle Pulse is to help educate players about the benefits of low juice by providing accurate information that helps improve the handicapping skills of prospective and existing Pinnacle Sports players. This is thanks in no small part to contributors such as Daringly and the Pinnacle Sports oddsmakers and line managers. It is our belief that if we can improve the sophistication of players and raise the awareness of Pinnacle Sports, more bettors will chose Pinnacle and benefit from our pricing that offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other bookmakers.

What are our players betting?

Dallas +3 -112 v. Seattle

Both teams finished the regular seasons below expectations - Seattle as reigning NFC champion and Dallas as an early Super Bowl favorite. Both lost three out of their final four games, landing Seattle and Dallas the #4 and #5 seeds, respectively.

The Cowboys opened at +3 (-114). The public leaned on Seattle by a ratio of 3-to-2, due at least in part to Dallas's recent humiliation at the hands of the hapless Lions. Meanwhile, the sharps clearly favor Dallas and have been taking the points.

New York Giants +7 -103 v. Philadelphia

The Eagles have finished the season playing inspired football winning their last five games. Jeff Garcia led the Eagles offense after stepping in for injured Donovan McNabb, throwing 10 TDs to just 2 INTs. His 95.8 passer rating would make him the #4 QB in the league. The Giants started at 6-2, but then dropped six of their last eight games to limp into the playoffs.

When you have two teams moving in opposing directions, statistical handicappers will often disagree on a game. One approach is to weight all games of the season evenly. Another approach is to weight recent games more heavily than ones earlier in the season. Each of these styles will strongly favor opposite teams in this match-up.

In our most heavily traded game of the week, we opened the Giants at +6 (-106). The line crept up as bettors took the Eagles by a 3-to-2 ratio. Our professional players are split on this match-up, possibly due to their statistical methodology. We are also seeing one-sided sharp action teasing the Eagles down.